Goal Difference could decide Group C’s World Cup fate between Nigeria and South Africa if…

The race for Group C’s ticket to the 2026 FIFA World Cup could come down to goal difference, if FIFA enforces Article 19 of its 2025 Disciplinary Code and deducts three points from South Africa.

The Bafana Bafana currently sit atop the group with 16 points, but a potential sanction stemming from their 3-0 win over Lesotho could drop them to 13 points and a goal difference of +5.

If South Africa go on to win two of their remaining three matches, assuming they lose to Nigeria in Bloemfontein next Tuesday, they will finish with 19 points.

Meanwhile, if the Super Eagles win all four of their remaining fixtures, including the crucial clash against South Africa, they too will end up with 19 points.

With Benin, Lesotho, and Rwanda mathematically unable to reach 19 points under this scenario, the group’s top spot would be decided by goal difference.

Group C
Team                P   W   GD   Pts
South Africa     7    5     8    16
Benin                7    3     0    11
Rwanda            6    2      0     8
Nigeria             6    1      1     7
Lesotho            7    1     -4     6
Zimbabwe        7     0    -5     4

To gain the upper hand, Nigeria must:

Score at least two goals against Rwanda this Saturday in Uyo and defeat South Africa by a minimum of two goals next Tuesday.

This would push Nigeria’s goal difference to +5, while South Africa’s would drop to +3, giving the Super Eagles the edge.

The final two rounds of qualifiers will be played in October.

If FIFA enforces the point deduction, Nigeria will have full control over their qualification destiny.

But everything hinges on whether the governing body acts on the misconduct by South Africa.