Opta Supercomputer Extends Nigeria’s Wait for Fourth AFCON Title
Opta’s supercomputer has projected that Nigeria’s long wait for a fourth Africa Cup of Nations title will continue, with the Super Eagles given only a 7.6 per cent chance of winning AFCON 2025 despite their status as 2023 runners‑up.
The data‑driven forecast places Nigeria behind four other contenders viz Morocco, Egypt, Senegal and Algeria in the race for the title, suggesting that the three‑time champions face an uphill task in Morocco next year.
Hosts Morocco are overwhelming favourites, winning the tournament in 19.1 per cent of simulations. Their 18‑match winning streak, combined with the presence of stars such as Achraf Hakimi, Brahim Díaz, Youssef En‑Nesyri and Yassine Bounou, makes them the most statistically dominant team heading into the competition.
Egypt follow with a 12.4 per cent chance, buoyed by Mohamed Salah’s return for his fifth AFCON. Senegal, champions in 2021, are close behind at 12.3 per cent under new coach Pape Thiaw, while Algeria, despite recent struggles, are rated at 12 per cent.
Nigeria’s relatively modest probability is influenced by a challenging Group C draw that includes Tunisia, Uganda and Tanzania.
The Super Eagles are given a 42.9 per cent chance of topping the group, only slightly ahead of Tunisia’s 40.1 per cent. New coach Éric Chelle will rely heavily on Victor Osimhen, Ademola Lookman and a talented frontline, but defensive injuries and the recent retirement of William Troost‑Ekong have weakened the squad’s stability.
Despite the projections, Nigeria’s AFCON history suggests they often outperform expectations when they qualify. Since 2000, the Super Eagles have reached the semi‑finals or better in seven of their last ten appearances, finishing third five times and winning the title in 2013.
However, the supercomputer’s numbers indicate that the road to a fourth continental crown may be longer than fans hope, especially with defending champions Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Mali and Tunisia also in the mix.
