Explainer: How Chelsea Can Qualify for UEFA Champions League
Blues Need Eight Results to Go Their Way for Europe’s Top Competition
Chelsea’s hopes of qualifying for next season’s Champions League under new head coach Xabi Alonso remain alive, but only just.
The Blues require a remarkable sequence of eight separate results to fall in their favour if they are to secure a place in Europe’s premier competition.
Chelsea’s chances of a top-five finish were effectively ended after a 3-1 home defeat to Nottingham Forest on May 4, their sixth consecutive Premier League loss. A further setback came at Wembley, where a 1-0 defeat to Manchester City in the FA Cup final denied them both silverware and a Europa League berth.
Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Aston Villa have already secured Champions League football for next season, with Liverpool strongly favoured to complete the top five.
Under UEFA’s European Performance Spots (EPS) system, England is set to receive an additional place, meaning sixth position could also provide a route into the competition.
However, this depends on Aston Villa’s performance in the Europa League final.
Villa face Freiburg in Istanbul on Wednesday night, with the winners guaranteed Champions League qualification.
Should Villa finish fifth in the Premier League and win the Europa League, the EPS slot would pass to the team in sixth place. Villa will drop to fifth if they lose to Manchester City on the final day and Liverpool defeat Brentford, due to their inferior goal difference.
For Chelsea, currently tenth and six points adrift of sixth-placed Bournemouth, the permutations are daunting. They must leapfrog four teams in the final week of the campaign, while also relying on a series of favourable results elsewhere.
The scenarios include Aston Villa winning the Europa League but losing to Manchester City, Liverpool beating Brentford, Brighton failing to overcome Manchester United, and Bournemouth losing both to Manchester City and Nottingham Forest.
Chelsea themselves must also defeat Tottenham and Sunderland to keep their faint hopes alive.
The Blues have not won a Premier League match since beating Villa on March 4, making back-to-back victories far from assured. Yet the possibility remains, however slim, that Chelsea could still secure Champions League football if this extraordinary chain of events unfolds.
