Supercomputer: France, Argentina, Spain Lead World Cup 2026 Forecasts

With the group stage complete and the knockout bracket confirmed, the Opta supercomputer has run 25,000 simulations of the remainder of the FIFA World Cup, producing detailed predictions on each team’s chances of progressing and ultimately lifting the trophy.

The expanded format, which allowed eight third‑placed teams to qualify, ensured that most of the tournament’s heavyweights advanced, though Uruguay emerged as the most notable casualty. Now, 32 teams remain in contention for football’s biggest prize.

France have surged into top position in the latest forecast, with an 18.7% chance of winning.

Les Bleus impressed with three wins from three in the group stage, their first perfect group campaign at a major tournament since 1998, when they went on to win the World Cup on home soil. Their projected path includes Sweden in the round of 32, a potential quarter‑final against Germany, and a semi‑final clash with Spain.

Argentina are rated second favorites at 16.3%, benefiting from a favorable draw that begins with Cape Verde in the round of 32.

Lionel Scaloni’s side could face Australia or Egypt in the last 16, before a quarter‑final against Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia, or Ghana. Their first true heavyweight test is expected in the semi‑finals, likely against Brazil or England.

Spain, pre‑tournament favorites, now sit third at 13.5%. Their knockout path is more demanding, with a potential last‑16 clash against Portugal, followed by a quarter‑final against one of the United States, Bosnia‑Herzegovina, Belgium, or Senegal.

England hold a 9.7% chance of winning, with a relatively straightforward opener against DR Congo.

However, their route quickly intensifies, with Mexico looming in the last 16 and Brazil likely in the quarter‑finals. Despite a stop‑start group stage, Thomas Tuchel’s side remain unbeaten in 11 competitive matches.

Brazil remain steady at 6.5%, while the Netherlands have improved their standing to 5.1% after scoring 10 goals in the group stage, equaling their best‑ever tally at this stage of a World Cup.

Among the co‑hosts, the United States are given a 42.5% chance of reaching the quarter‑finals, while Mexico and Canada are rated at 28.3% and 25.2% respectively.